Tuesday, 30 August 2016

Week that was in training and a look at the Diamond League finals.

Hello again friends, hows the training been going? I know those marathoners are strait GRINDING right now and I love seeing it. Hitting those mega long runs with some race pace at the end of a big week with fatigue in the legs. The stuff that makes you sick to your stomach in the car as you drive to meet your training partners knowing what lies ahead. Well, your all getting close so keep it going and know that once you start to drop the volume and freshen up those legs you'll feel like a million bucks and those PR's from last year will get smashed. On my end training has gotten down and dirty, last week beat up the mind, body and soul but it was a good one and some fitness will be reaped for sure. I'll outline what I did below but I went to the well on both of my workouts that's for sure. So as I sit here typing this I'm about 11 days out from the 5km champs. The field is looking pretty ridiculous with 3 Olympians up front so naturally your boy isn't going to be pushing the pace from the gun or anything, but I'm definitively fit to run a big 5km PR so the game plan will be to find a few guys who I know will be running well and around that 14:45 mark and just let it ride. With the way the girls race is looking, 2 sub 15:20 ladies I don't have much of a choice but to run that fast or else I'm going to get rolled up on. So yeah, the plan is to just trust the work that I've put in and have some fun. Unfortunately my boy Costen isn't toeing the line for this one, he's always my go to for judging where I need to be, basically I get behind him and he slowly gaps me, it's kind of our thing so he will be missed on the start line but he's got bigger fish to fry come October 16th over 26.2 and I hear he's going hunting at the Toronto Zoo on September 24th so watch for him at that race. #Wolf as CoffeyRunner likes to say.


Diamond League Finals; what to look for.


So the Diamond League as you all know is the big show. Each year 16 disciplines are deemed Diamond Events. Over the course of the year/meets they are raced with 10 points for a win during the regular meets and 20 in the finale, so these last two meets a lot can change. A win in a single race will net you $10000 and you take of 40K if you are the Diamond race winner. So let's look at who should come out on top if all goes according to plan and if we might see an upset. (Running event's only as I have very little knowledge about field events)

Men's and Women's 100m - Justin Gatlin and Elaine Thompson should be a lock here, I don't see an upset coming.

Men's and Women's 200m - Alonso Edward is too far ahead of Ameer Webb so he is pretty much a lock and on the women's side it's all about Dafne Schippers

Men's and Women's 400m - Lashawn Merritt has looked great all year, even in his 43:XX for 3rd place in Rio, he's taking the diamond for sure. For the women it's going to be very tight and it's a toss up between Stephenie Ann McPherson, Shaunae Miller and Natasha Hastings who are all only separated by 3 points!!!! This is one to watch.

Men's and Women's 800m - One of my favorite events! Now I'm not saying these are the best two 800m guys, but the two with a shot to take the 40k this year are Rotich and Bosse. Personally, I don't see either of them winning the race but I like Bosse to come from behind and snatch the Diamond race. On the women's side, even with Niyonsaba being just 2 points behind Caster Semenya, there is no way she is beating her, it hasn't happened yet and it won't go down in the final. Look for Semenya to do what she always does, WIN.

Men's and Women's 1500m - Another one of my faves. The two with a shot going in points wise are Kiprop and Manangoi.....boy, they fizzled out this year a little hey. Anyway, I see Kiprop getting the better of this one as he's likely rested from the Olympics and that 1000m he ran about a week ago and has the motivation of squandering incredible early season fitness. Kiprop FTW. On the ladies front, I kinda want to go with the upset here and take Laura Miur, but I don't see her being allowed to do what she did at the last race. It was amazing watching her determination running away from the Olympic champ. But Kipyegon is just that THE OLYMPIC CHAMP. She's going to take it but it will have to be wrestled from Muir.

Men's and Women's 5000m - With the finale being double points the long, lean, Kejelcha could upset the points leader Muktar Edris and after watching him bring back Iguider in the 3000 that was contested over the weekend in Paris I think he's beating anyone and everyone not named Mo Farah, Kejelcha takes this. On the women's side if Ayana toes the line at anything better then 80% she wins this. Mercy Cherono is only 2 points back but she's not beating a rested Ayana over 5k.

Men's and Women's 3000m SC - This is as cut and dry as it gets, even if he doesn't start the champ, Conseslus Kipruto has 50 points and wins by default in true legend status. On the women's side, can we picture anyone beating Ruth Jebet after shattering the WR, no dice! Jebet will be taking home some cold hard cash for sure.

Interesting story line to watch - The Bowerman Track Club teammates of Evan Jager and Ryan Hill in the 5k. Can either of them go sub 13? I think Jager is certainly in that type of shape, the question is, will the race go out that fast or will Edris and Kejelcha just sit back and duke it out letting the pace slow? If the leaders run sub 13 minute pace the whole race I like Jagers chances, he's aerobically very strong and can handle that kind of tempo. I feel like Ryan Hill's best event is the 3k as he showed last weekend running 7:30.9, number 3 all time on the american list (4 if you take Rupp's indoor time). I don't think he's got the aerobic engine to support a sub 13 pace from the gun but he could prove me wrong. My prediction is it's a 13:0X race with a burn up at 600m to go.




My week that was in training.


Monday - 90' with 4X15" strides 

Tuesday - 92' with 4X15" strides + General Strength

Wednesday - 71' with 5X800m on the track off 2' jog/hands on knees (2:12, 2:13, 2:15, 2:14, 2:19)

Thursday - 93' with 4X15" strides

Friday - 45" super relaxed

Saturday - 121' LR, easy first 60' then 3X15' with 2' recover after the first 15' and 3' after the second. Average paces for the 15' segments were 5:07, 5:09 and 5:16. (Ideally half marathon pace will be 5:08, or all 16:00 5km's)

Sunday - 62' death shuffle



So that's another one in the books. I had a little session of mile race pace work today, just sharpening up the legs and trying to get em' feeling snappy again. Things are going well, I was pretty tired at the end of last week with those workouts but I'm coming around now. I'm not running the 120+ mile weeks I used to but all of my runs are much higher quality and I'm spending more time on drills and other accessory stuff which seems to be helping. 

Until next time guys,
Stay frosty,
Dave

Tuesday, 23 August 2016

The insanity that was Rio 2016 Athletics - Semenya, Farah, Bolt, etc.

Hey friends! I trust you are all training hard and looking forward to the fall road and cross seasons. Over here on the east coast I'm putting in some good work. The last 3 weeks have been about the best I've ever felt and things are really clicking. I think coach John has me dialed in perfect in terms of volume and intensity as I'm starting to really hit workouts with confidence and am ending them knowing there's more in the tank. So, needless to say I'll be looking for some PB's in September, October and November. Until then I'll keep my head down and just grind. (I may not feel as positive tomorrow as I've got 5X800 in 2:15....so wish me luck with that one.)

Anyway, in this post I'll try to briefly touch on the last 5 days of the Olympics (athletics) and highlight some of the races I enjoyed and what story lines emerged. After that I'll do a recap of my week that was in training and then get you guys out of here as I'm sure you'll want to spend your time reading better content over on trackie.ca, letsrun.com or flotrack.org. Before I get into that though, a shout out to everyone who's training for a full marathon this fall, it's crazy how everyone I seem to follow on Strava or even just friends in general all seem to be gearing up for a full. My boy Mark Hayward is putting in some stellar training which is hella impressive given the fact that he's in medical school and has a new born at home. Then I caught on Instagram that Kev Coffey is making another appearance at STWM so that's going to be one to watch as he's due for a good one, well south of 2:20. And last but certainly not least the wolf himself, Jeff Costen is putting in some monster sessions. I won't hype the kid too much but you know I'm high on his ability. He likely wants to play it low key in his debut, but it certainly isn't his first rodeo. Dude ran a beauty long run there last week covering 26.2 in 2:4X. He'll be ready to roll come October 16th. Dr. de Jong and I will be at 40K directing all you beauties into the homestretch!


5 story lines that emerged from the last 5 days of Athletics in Rio


1 - Usain Bolt is the GOAT and is truly a star that transcends the sport. We can all pretty much agree that Track and Field at it's core is a niche sport, but every so often there emerges a transcending figure that has the perfect blend of athletic ability, charisma and showmanship that puts them in the mainstream. Usain Bolt certainly fit that bill, and since he burst onto the scene in Beijing 8 years ago he has been a superstar. From appearances on late night talk shows, edgy Puma commercials ("calling all troublemakers..") and appearances at pop culture award shows, he's made himself into a household name. Pretty much anyone you ask will know the name Usain Bolt. It was reported that Bolt pulled in 32.5 million in endorsements last year and that he could potentially make up to 80 this year if he parlays the Olympic year into the equation. And in my mind he's worth every penny. Usain's career has been nothing short of amazing. He's run WR's over the 1,2 and 4X1. Set Olympic records under the pressure of game opposition and faced the very best, even when his training had been less then ideal. I hope we get to see him on the track one more time next year in London, pull off the double and then ride off into the sunset. Will there ever be another like him? I doubt it, but young Andre De Grass is certainly someone who looks poised to take his place as the number one sprinter in the world as we move into a new era.

2 - Mo Farah needs to be in the conversation for greatest distance runner of all time. He can't be kept out of that debate any longer. I still hear people saying he's not winning in fast races, but guess what, the times he ran to win at this year's Olympics were only seconds off the Olympic records and he closed like a savage, even falling in the 10k. Sure he doesn't have a blazing fast time to his name over 5km and 10km. But his hardware is stacking up higher and higher, not to mention the fact that he's still running quick year in, year out. In this, an Olympic year, he has run one of the fastest 1500m times, the quickest 5k and 10k time as well as a sub 60 minute half. He faces all comers and takes them down. I will submit that he doesn't have the cross country credentials of the greats like Geb and Bekele but we also need to understand that Cross isn't as big as it was back in the late 90's and early to mid 2000's. The same can be said for opportunities to time trial fast 5km's and 10km's. How things are looking now, I expect him to pull off the double again next year in London and then move to the roads. I was chatting with my good friend Jeremiah and he made some great points about Mo and Galen and it got me thinking about this GOAT debate. Mo may never run the 2:03 that Geb ran, or have the list of cross country titles and scalps that Bekele does. But we do need to realize and appreciate what he's currently doing and the caliber of athletes he's beating over everything from the 15 to the half.

3 - The women's 800 went exactly how we thought it would. Before I even touch on the top 3 let's give a huge shout out to Melissa Bishop. My girl, Amy Friel and I have been talking about it over the last 2 days. Her performance was inspired, it's one I hope she's proud of. Obviously it's heartbreaking to not medal being in the shape she was, but she ran an unreal race and displayed nothing but class afterwards. We are all super proud of you Melissa! As for the race itself, Caster put on a truly amazing display of 800m running. Her strength over the last 120m in unrivaled. Nyonsaba looked great as did Wambui closing well. I feel there's too much talk over the intersex element right now. I mean we knew about the state of the 800 since April, we should be respecting the medalists at this point and focusing on the tremendous performances put forth in that final. Heck, 1:57 came 6th!!!! The debate about fairness or equal playing field can be saved for those who have the knowledge and understanding of the situation at a later date. Clearly it needs to be figured out and talked about thoroughly but to all those people on social media/twitter who are disrespecting the athletes, please give it a rest. They deserve our respect and gratitude for putting forth a truly memorable 800m final.

4 - NOP and Salazar are doing something right. Regardless if you like them or hate them. The performances put down by Rowbury, Centro, Rupp and Farah were sensational and american distance running in general is in a very good/healthy place. To see Centro running a tactically perfect race and holding off a 1:42 guy over the last 400m will go down as one of the best performances ever. His tactical awareness is unmatched. How he wastes zero energy and looks the same running 75 second quarters as he does 50 second quarters boggles my mind. Every young 1500m runner needs to watch tape on Centro to see how it's done, hell, some pros could learn a thing or two from him. Then we come to Rupp, that bronze medal over 26.2 miles was really something special. He hung with a 2:03 and a 2:04 guy for 23 miles in his second marathon and displayed a calmness that normally takes a half a dozen attempts to master. Kipchoge is the best marathoner the world has ever seen, and the guy just ahead of Rupp, Feyisa is also a stud and won the first major of the year in Tokyo. My boy JJ had told me this before the games even happened but he was right on the money, Rupp's best event will no doubt be the marathon and I believe Salazar when he says he expects him to run a 2:04 at some point, likely 2018.

5 - Canada certainly showed they can compete well on the world stage in Athletics. I think we should look at these games as a huge step in the right direction for our nation. We had stellar performances on the men's and women's side in all events, from Brianne in the heptathlon, Andre in the 100m, Melissa in the 8, Mo in the 5k and Eric holding it down in the Marathon. We sometimes get very frustrated with Athletics Canada be it their criteria, lack of transparency or funding selections but we don't normally congratulate them when they do get things right. In my eyes Rio 2016 was a huge success and I think in 4 years from now we will be even further ahead and other countries will be taking note of our athletes over all disciplines.

 

My week in training.


Monday - 91' with 4X15" strides + 40' General Strength 

Tuesday - 75' with 4X15" strides

Wednesday - 92' with 8X1'/3' @5:00/mile for the 1' and 5:30/mile for the 3' continuous. 

Thursday - 77' with 4X15" strides + 45' General Strength

Friday - OFF, with a 60' swim and some drills.

Saturday - 122' Long Run with 4X10' @ 5:12/mile average. 90" float between intervals.

Sunday - 76' super chill on the trails.


So yeah, that's another week in the books. I'm feeling fit, fast and really enjoying the training. Lot's more work to do obviously and a set of 800's tomorrow in 2:15 certainly won't be a walk in the park but that's the grind my friends.

Anyway, I'll see you all next week, same bat time, same bat place.

Stay pretty,
Dave

Tuesday, 16 August 2016

A look at the first 5 days of Athletics in Rio & my week of training.

Hey ya'll, how are things? I bet you are all glued to the TV/Computer and are enjoying the Olympic Games. It's not just Athletics that's been exciting, everything from swimming to kayaking has been super entertaining. But Track and Field are what's really got me excited right now. There's been so many great races/performances. From Bolt becoming a 3 time 100m Olympic Champ to Alamaz Ayana running a new 10000m WR of 29:17. The Olympics really brings out the very best and it seems like everyone competing has shown up and gotten their peak just right. I`m going to hit some of the best performances, at least what I consider the best performances, below and then recap my week in training. I didn't bother to do a breakdown of the women's marathon after, as I was putting one together it became clear there was only 5 women with a realistic chance to win and non of them were really household names that most would know so there wasn't really much point. Anyway, let's jump into it and look at some of the best races of the first 5 days.

Women's 10000m


What can you say about this race, in my mind it was the 3rd best in recent Olympic history, first being Usain Bolt's 9.63 and David Rudisha's 1:40. Now, we need to start by giving a shout out to Alice Aprop, I mentioned her when I was breaking down the race, she's the one who got after it from the gun and started running 70's. This got rid of everyone who was just at the games to compete and made it about the contenders. When I saw the 3km split I couldn't really believe what I was watching, then came the 14:46 5000m mark where Ayana started to move, within a couple laps she dropped some 66's and was away by 100m. It was truly a performance for the ages, for a women (Alice Aprop) to run sub 30 and come fourth, it shows how magical the race really was. I know right off the hop people started calling "doping" and Steve Magness got all over twitter claiming the performance as "laughable" but the fact of the matter is, it was still something special, regardless of whether or not the athlete had some assistance. She has never tested positive and deserves the benefit of the doubt. Strong performances also came from Vivian C. and T. Dibaba rounding out the top 3. 29:40 for 3rd.....it seems crazy to even type that.

Men's 10000m


Was there ever any doubt about that one? The big surprise was that GK went out the back door as early as he did. There was some talk on the letsrun.com boards that he was getting over an injury which does make sense as he DNF'd the Kenyan Trials. Farah showed great composure after taking a fall early getting clipped by Rupp. You knew when he got on the shoulder of Paul Tanui with 120m to go it was all over. Farah is now in some tremendous company with regards to double Olympic 10000m champs. I feel like he will actually have an easier time doubling back in the 5km this time around then he did in London. Yet, I still see some people saying he shouldn't be in the GOAT conversation with the likes of Bekele and Haile (Zatopek & Viren go without saying). The fact of the matter is, he has displayed unreal dominance since 2011 and run extremely fast from 1500m to the half marathon. The biggest kicker for me is that people like to use the fact that his 5k and 10k PB's are 12:53/26:46. That's true, but that's not his actually fitness level. The man could easily run a low to mid 12:4X and likely 26:30. They don't set up fast 5000's and 10000's to the same degree in which they did when Haile, Bekele and Komen were running. It's about winning these days and times become secondary in most cases. I encourage anyone who doesn't think he should be to go back over the guys he has beat in the last few WC and Olympics. People are quick to bring up the likes of Geb vs Tergat, Bekele vs Tedese etc, which are all fair points but Farah has beaten guys like Ndiku, Gebremeskel, Kipchoge, GK and others. As of right now, he may not be the GOAT, and perhaps he wont ever be considered that but he needs to be in the discussion. 

Men's 800m


WHAT A RACE!! This wasn't as great as the women's 10000m but it was something special, to see Kipketer take it out at a ridiculous pace and not give up the lead until 300 to go, then watching Rudishia just assert his dominance, making a super strong move to retain his Olympic title was a thing of beauty. He has been doubted over the last 3 years having to work through injury and inconsistent training but the fact of the matter is he won worlds last year and ran the fastest time since 2012 in the Olympic final last night. He's the greatest 800m runner to ever live. Makhloufi looked redicously strong in that 800m as well. I'm afraid we might see an upset like in 2012 if Kiprop isn't in the form he was early this year and last year. Either way it makes for a great storyline. Also, what about Clayton Murphy, the kid skips the 1:43's all together, he ran tactically perfect and was rewarded for his efforts, awesome race.

Women's 3000m steeplechase


Another great race, what is it about this track/these Olympics, everyone is getting after it and it's making for some amazing races. After a 3:05 first 1000m, Ruth Jebet was having non of it and took off dropping a 2:54 K and holding on for an 8:59, if she didn't tie up in the last 80m she would have run a WR. And we saw some absolutely inspired running and Emma Coburn realized her potential and grabbed a bronze, running very smart through the middle portion of the race and closing hard in a new AR.

Men's 100m


This is another one we saw coming but actually witnessing it was a different story. Usain Bolt has won the last 3 Olympic Titles over 100m, the rock star event of the games. There's a reason he reportedly makes 80 million a year through endorsements, he transcends the sport of track and field and gets the average person to tune in a watch. He says he's committed to his sponsor to go through the world champs next year before he retires and I think that's the best way to go out. Leave the sport at the top, nobody was good enough to wrestle the title away from you so just walk away the best and never look back. What a legend, a case could be made that he's the best overall athlete in the world, and I think it's a fair one. Our boy Degrass looked like a total stud taking the bronze and won his heat in the 200m today, this is his coming out party and I'm sure we will see him dominate the scene over the years to come.

Men's 400m


All I can say is WHAT WAS THAT.....I didn't think anyone could touch Michael Johnson's WR in the 400. It's stood for 17 years and it's just such a fast mark, most years there's only a guy or two who dips under 44. But Wayde van Niekerk out in lane 8 just threw it down. I honestly thought it would be Merritt and James battling it out for the win but they went 3 and 2. I don't follow the 400 super closely but from now own I'll be keeping my eyes locked on this guy, could we see a 42:XX if he gets the right race in lane 4? Crazy to think about.



My week in training.


Monday - 61' with 4X15" strides + General Strength in the gym (Trying something new)

Tuesday - 77' with 4X15" strides

Wednesday - 66' Workout 8X400m @ 5km race pace with a 400m float 68,70,70,70,71,70,70,70

Thursday - 78' with 4X15" strides + General Strength 

Friday - Off with a 45' swim.

Saturday - 94' Long Run with 25' in the middle at 5:16/mile average.

Sunday - 62' easy/recovery



So that was my week, I'm feeling about the best I have since May, the body is really clicking and feeling 100% healthy which is nice. John has a nice little workout on the books for me tomorrow within a 90' run of 8X1'/3' continuous fartleking between 5:00/mile and marathon pace of 5:30/mile. Anyway, enjoy the Olympics and happy training, I'll chat with you guys next week.

Keep those sticks on the ice,
Dave

Tuesday, 9 August 2016

The fall buildup begins + Breaking down the Rio 10k's

Hey friends, I hope you are all well. I'm sorry the last couple weeks got away from me. I just started my fall segment and have been getting my head in the game. I like to make sure I'm updating once a week so I'll make sure not to miss any from here until XC Nats in K-Town. Let's kick this entry old school and get back on track. I'll talk about the women and men's 10000m races and try to break that down as best as I can. I'll write another entry before the women's marathon, that deserves a full on blog post in and of itself. After that I'll break down what coach John had me doing last week in training. As some of you guys know, I had an injury back in June and took 2 weeks off completely. (non running related, I fell doing some work on my house). So we didn't do any real training going into the Tely. John just said to go out and run a controlled race and then look towards our goals for the fall which are the national 5km champs on September 11th, STWM (the half) on October 18th and then close out the season with cross country nationals in Kingston which is the last weekend of November I believe. I'll skip our provincial 5km champs as I don't really see the point of doing it, the last couple years it's been a solo run from the gun so it's better to just get my training in order and hit a fast one in Toronto. I'll try to convince John to let me run the turkey tea 10k. It's a good chance to knock out a sub 31, I was super close last year in 31:07 and I'm sure I'll be much further along come late October, but I'll leave it in his hands. So without anymore rambling let's look at the 10k's. We will start with the women's race which is on Friday morning.

Women's 10000m, will Ayana reign supreme or will T. Dibaba make history?


This is a very intriguing race. On paper, based on the last two years and what's gone down thus far any logical person would say this is all Almaz Ayana. She has been untouched with the absense of Genzebe Dibaba over 3-10k. Heck even when Genzebe was running the 5k, she got her doors blown off by Ayana last year at worlds. We saw Almaz almost run the world record twice over 5k so far this year, and keep in mind folks she's so fast that she can't even find a women quick enough to take her to 3km as she needs about 8:27/8. 8:30 is 14:10 pace. Any women who could potentially pace her is in 14:30-40 shape and would just race themselves. I only mention this to just show how far ahead of the other women she is. Then at the Ethiopian trials she just ripped the field apart and ran 30:07. That said, Tirunesh was early in her build up and has 6 weeks more fitness in the bank and she's the two time defending Olympic champ. Heck she's 11/12 lifetime over the distance with her only loss coming to Ayana at the trials this year. 

So, I'm giving Tirunesh the benefit of the doubt, if she can find the form she's shown in the past I feel like she's got better closing speed then Ayana which is the only chink in her armor. At age 31 can Dibaba bring back the form that showed her closing out 30 flat 10k's in 59 point. Let's not forget Ayana in chasing Dibaba's record after all. I'm very much torn, I'm going to go with the upset here and actually take Dibaba. I know it sounds crazy but I feel like she may know something we don't and wouldn't come back if she didn't think she could win gold. I think Ayana will take 2ed and then go on to double back in win the 5km with ease.

Now, for the last spot. Well, we know it's going to be fast, that's a 100% certainty, I'd even say we could see a sub 30 taking the win. There will be no sit and kick in this race, it's not to Ayana's benefit and it's not how she runs. So the question then becomes who of the rest could run between 30:00 and 30:10? Well, I'd venture to say we should favor Alice Aprop, she's got some super credentials and has the second fastest time in the world this year. Then if she has an off day I'd put last year's world champ, the legendary Vivian Cheruiyot in there, she's a seasoned veteran who's had many EPIC battles with Dibaba over the years and knows how to win, she could very well grab a medal. I'll also add Etheopia's Geleta Burka, she's super strong, not a ton of closing speed but can certainly click off 72's for most if not all the race just don't expect anything under 63 from her at the bell.

I guess we should mention our North American contingent here as well. Unfortunately, this isn't a great year to be running the 10k, I mean Molly Huddle may get herself into AR shape but I fear that's not going to be enough. Even if she's with the leaders or lets say the front two are gone and then she's with a pack of 2 or 3, she's not going to close the last 800 in under 2:10 and it'll take at least that to break the ladies I've mentioned above. I'd say she could close in maybe 2:12-14 but no much faster. That said I'm holding out hope, she's in great shape and knows anything can happen. As for the others...I mean I don't think either of the other two American's can run under 31:30, perhaps like 31:20 in a Payton Jordan type setting running 75.5's the whole way but they will very likely get lapped. As for Lanni and Natasha, I'm super excited with have two girls in this race. That's the key thing here for them, their best bet is to try to run their PR's as evenly as possible. Look to break 32, forget everyone else and trust that the best way for them to finish as high as possible is to run steady and to the fastest their fitness will allow and know that some girls will get in over their head and die. I wouldn't recomend going with the the American's, Infeld or Hall as they both run 15 flat for 5km and are in 31:30 or a little better shape. They may blow up and then our girls can eat them up over the last 2 km.

Predictions;

T. Dibaba
A. Ayana
V. Cheruiyot

Men's 10000m can GK break away or will Mo be there with 2 to go then make him look like he's walking it in?


This is another great one, with 1 main story line. We all know what GK and Karoki need to do here, if they don't it's going to be a very easy day at the oval office for Mo Farah. The boy's need to work together, possibly get Tanui in there as well, though I doubt he's strong enough as Galen dropped him in a 26:44 race but he could help for at least 7/8km. They need to get on it from the first lap, just rolling 2:40/km the minute that gun goes off. Come through 3000m in 7:59-8:02, 5km in 13:18-21, then just try like all hell to push on at that pace and hope to get a little gap. 

It's obvious GK is the best in the world over the half, and I suspect by the time he's 25 he will own the Marathon WR, he's beyond strong. And let's give him credit, he ran 12:59 for 5km as well, that's excellent range. The problem is, I feel like Mo is very much a track runner, he's nervous in a race as long as 13.1 miles and let's gaps open, heck he let Bekele open up one with a little over a mile to go at the great north run that year. But he will never allow that to happen in a race on the track. And with the form he's displayed recently in Birmingham, Monaco and London...he's very confident.You can just tell by how Mo moves on the track in the last lap in comparison to GK and even Karoki, they seem rigid and like they aren't comfortable moving under 60 seconds/lap pace, while Farah is relaxed even the last 80m, he's straining for sure when he's closing the last 800 of a 5k in 1:48 or running a 3:28 1500 but he's still moving with fluidity. Even comparing him to a speedster like Ndiku, the same can be said.

I can't bet against Mo here, he's more vulnerable in this race then the 5km but I don't think GK or Karoki are fit enough to get away from him. When I look back at the 2000's the only guy's who could beat Mo over 10k are Geb, Bekele, Tergat and Shihine. GK will have his time in 2020, hopefully doubling in the 10k and the Marathon.

Now, what about Rupp? Should he be in the conversation here? As much as I'm a huge fan, the answer is no, and there's 2 reasons he doesn't have the same odds in his favor like he did in 2012. The first is the fact that there are 3 guys in better shape and 1 around his fitness. The second being his speed has felt the effects of the marathon training. You can't be in 3:50 mile shape and sub 2:10 marathon shape....it just doesn't work like that. (Well Farah was when he ran 2:08 but he's the outlier). Galen was breaking 13, running 3:34 for 1500m and 7:30 for 3km in 2012, he had to sacrifice that closing speed to chase the marathon. His best hope is that it's a sub 27 minute race, he's very strong and can still probably PR in the 10k. But he's likely not going to close a sub 27 race with a final 800 any quicker then 1:58 and if he's not away with the first two he's in trouble. I hope he pulls something off but don't expect an upset.

Predictions;

M. Farah via sub 55 last lap, letting up for a Mo-Bot
GK
B. Karoki


My week that was in training.


Monday - 62' with 4X15" strides

Tuesday - 77' with 4X15" strides

Wednesday - Fartlek 94' total with 30' of 1' @ 5:00/mile into 4' @ 5:30/mile. Felt super chill.

Thursday - 75' with 4X15" strides

Friday - 47' recovery jog

Saturday - 76' with 8X30"/90" at mile race pace mid run.

Sunday - 122' Long run, just ROLLIN!!


So yeah, that was my week, she was a good one, I'm really getting excited for the 5km champs, I've got a 5km  pace work session of 400's tomorrow which I'll do on the track, just trying to get into that 70 second quarter rhythm feeling really comfortable.


Alright folks, I've taken up enough of your time, I'll be back Friday to break down the Marathon. 

Keep that chin tucked, hands high and let em' fly,

DF - OUT!